Could the SNP win 25 seats at Westminster?
Despite a fairly comprehensive defeat for the nationalists in last week’s indyref, we now think the SNP might make some significant progress in next May’s general election.
Their seat line (which is our central forecast for the number of constituencies won) has moved up from 6.5 to 9.5; the SNP currently hold six of Scotland’s 59 seats.
In pretty much every seat in Scotland, their odds have been cut quite significantly, and below are their top 25 prospects along with our estimate of their chances of winning each seat, based on Ladbrokes current odds in each constituency.
|Seat||2010 Winner||2010 Majoity %||SNP Win Chance|
|Perth & Perthshire North||SNP||9.1||82.73%|
|Banff & Buchan||SNP||10.5||83.59%|
|Na h-Eileanan an Iar||SNP||12.8||75.44%|
|Argyll & Bute||Lib-Dem||7.6||42.56%|
|Ochil & Perthshire South||Labour||10.3||38.37%|
|Ayrshire North& Arran||Labour||21.5||30.35%|
|Fife North East||Lib-Dem||22.6||24.97%|
|Linlithgow & Falkirk East||Labour||24.4||19.95%|
|Kilmarnock & Loudoun||Labour||26.6||18.07%|
|Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine||Lib-Dem||8.2||17.55%|
|Caithness, Sutherland & E-R||Lib-Dem||16.8||17.60%|
|Dunfermline & Fife West||Labour||11.2||14.84%|
The SNP are now favourites to win Argyll & Bute, a seat in which they actually came fourth last time. We also now make them favourites to turn over Danny Alexander’s sizeable majority in Inverness. He could be the highest profile cabinet casualty in 2015.
Their hopes rest on being able to appeal to a sizeable chunk of the 45% who voted YES last week. I expect a large number of those will revert to type and not bother voting at the general election. However, if the SNPs dramatic increase in membership since last Thursday is anything to go by, they must stand a good chance of causing Labour and the Liberal Democrats some big problems across the country.
The SNP is now so big it can be seen from space.
— Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) September 23, 2014