The five Scottish seats set to change hands in 2015
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Based on Ladbrokes’ odds in each individual constituency, we’re projecting that five seats in Scotland will change hands at the next general election. Amazingly, not a single seat switched in 2010 (ignoring a couple of seats regained after by-elections). Here are the constituencies most at risk this time. The “lose chance” is the probability, based on our odds, of the incumbent party being defeated :
| Seat | Winner 2010 | Maj % | Prediction | Lose Chance |
| Argyll & Bute | LD | 7.6 | SNP GAIN | 77.64% |
| Gordon | LD | 13.8 | SNP GAIN | 64.42% |
| Dunbartonshire East | LD | 4.5 | LAB GAIN | 63.18% |
| Edinburgh West | LD | 8.2 | LAB GAIN | 60.58% |
| Inverness | LD | 18.6 | LD LOSS | 56.85% |
| Aberdeenshire W & K | LD | 8.2 | LD HOLD | 48.78% |
| Berwickshire, Rox & Sel | LD | 11.6 | LD HOLD | 46.04% |
| Caithness, Suth & ER | LD | 16.8 | LD HOLD | 36.62% |
| Ochil & Perthshire South | LAB | 10.3 | LAB HOLD | 36.07% |
| Falkirk | LAB | 15.4 | LAB HOLD | 35.51% |
| Dumfriesshire, C & T | CONS | 9.1 | CON HOLD | 35.10% |
| Fife North East | LD | 22.6 | LD HOLD | 33.19% |
| Dundee East | SNP | 4.5 | SNP HOLD | 27.03% |
| Ross, Skye and Lochaber | LD | 37.5 | LD HOLD | 12.61% |
| Orkney and Shetland | LD | 51.3 | LD HOLD | 6.44% |
Danny Alexander is given a 57% chance of losing his Inverness seat, but we aren’t forecasting a gain for any party, because the SNP and Labour are both in with a reasonable chance of winning it. So, that still remains in the LD column in our overall totals below as he is still just about favourite, although odds-against.
We have the SNP as gaining two seats from the Liberal Democrats, but both are very hard to call, especially Argyll & Bute where they actually came fourth last time. This is probably the most difficult seat in Britain to forecast, with all four parties in with a shout. Their best chance of any gains from Labour come in Ochil & Perthshire South and Falkirk – you can back them at 7/4 in each of those two seats.
The Tories are forecast to remain with just one Scottish MP, although they have a couple of very plausible targets in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at 11/10, and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine at 6/4.
Here are the projected new seat totals for Scotland, (with changes from 2010):
- Lab 43 (+2)
- SNP 8 (+2)
- LD 7 (-4)
- Cons 1 (nc)
Clearly, the big unknown is how the result of the Independence Referendum will affect voter behaviour. If there is a YES vote, then these MPs will presumably be out of a job within two years of the election.
