The 11 seats Labour are set to gain in the North West
Ladbrokes now have general election constituency odds on all 75 seats in North West England.
Based on those odds, we think eleven seats will change hands in the region; all Labour gains.
|Seat||Winner 2010||Maj %||Prediction|
|Lancaster & Fleetwood||Conservative||0.8||LAB GAIN|
|Morecambe & Lunesdale||Conservative||2.0||LAB GAIN|
|Weaver Vale||Conservative||2.3||LAB GAIN|
|Warrington South||Conservative||2.8||LAB GAIN|
|Bury North||Conservative||5.0||LAB GAIN|
|Blackpool N & Cleveleys||Conservative||5.3||LAB GAIN|
|City of Chester||Conservative||5.5||LAB GAIN|
|Wirral West||Conservative||6.2||LAB GAIN|
|Manchester Withington||Lib-Dem||4.2||LAB GAIN|
We’ve also got one seat in the “too close to call” column; Pendle which has the Tories and Labour as 10/11 joint favourites. I guess the most high-profile casualty if the odds are correct would be Esther McVey in Wirral West.
One of the most interesting seats still just about in the CON HOLD column is Rossendale & Darwen where Will Straw (son of Jack) is a narrow outsider to regain the seat for Labour.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to hold on to their three seats in Cheshire along with Fortress Farron in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Manchester Withington looks like a formality for Labour, although we have seen some informed money for the Lib Dems to hold on in Burnley.
There are no particularly obvious targets for UKIP here; Ladbrokes rate their best chances as Ribble Valley and Blackpool South, both at 16/1
Here is the predicted new make up of the region after the election, along with the change from 2010:
- Lab 58 (+11)
- Cons 13 (-9)
- LD 4 (-2)