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The 11 seats Labour are set to gain in the North West

| 07.07.2014

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Ladbrokes now have general election constituency odds on all 75 seats in North West England.

Based on those odds, we think eleven seats will change hands in the region; all Labour gains.

Seat Winner 2010 Maj % Prediction
Lancaster & Fleetwood Conservative 0.8 LAB GAIN
Morecambe & Lunesdale Conservative 2.0 LAB GAIN
Carlisle Conservative 2.0 LAB GAIN
Weaver Vale Conservative 2.3 LAB GAIN
Warrington South Conservative 2.8 LAB GAIN
Bury North Conservative 5.0 LAB GAIN
Blackpool N & Cleveleys Conservative 5.3 LAB GAIN
City of Chester Conservative 5.5 LAB GAIN
Wirral West Conservative 6.2 LAB GAIN
Manchester Withington Lib-Dem 4.2 LAB GAIN
Burnley Lib-Dem 4.3 LAB GAIN

We’ve also got one seat in the “too close to call” column; Pendle which has the Tories and Labour as 10/11 joint favourites. I guess the most high-profile casualty if the odds are correct would be Esther McVey in Wirral West.

One of the most interesting seats still just about in the CON HOLD column is Rossendale & Darwen where Will Straw (son of Jack) is a narrow outsider to regain the seat for Labour.

The Liberal Democrats are forecast to hold on to their three seats in Cheshire along with Fortress Farron in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Manchester Withington looks like a formality for Labour, although we have seen some informed money for the Lib Dems to hold on in Burnley.

There are no particularly obvious targets for UKIP here; Ladbrokes rate their best chances as Ribble Valley and Blackpool South, both at 16/1

Here is the predicted new make up of the region after the election, along with the change from 2010:

  • Lab 58 (+11)
  • Cons 13 (-9)
  • LD 4 (-2)

 

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Author

Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.