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Tory Leadership Contests – a betting history.

| 18.06.2014

If the polls remain as they are (a big if) then we are probably a year or so away from a Tory leadership contest. Here is a look back at how the betting markets looked a year out from previous fights. In hindsight, there were some very surprising names in the frame.

September 2001 – IDS takes over from Hague

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The betting on next Tory leader in September 2000:

  • 6/4 Michael Portillo
  • 3/1 Ann Widdicombe (!)
  • 7/2 Ken Clarke
  • 5/1 Andrew Lansley
  • 7/1 Liam Fox
  • 16/1 Iain Duncan-Smith
  • 20/1 Theresa May
  • 50/1 Boris Johnson

October 2003 – Michael Howard takes over from IDS

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The betting on next Tory leader in October 2002:

  • 3/1 David Davis
  • 4/1 Theresa May
  • 7/1 Ken Clarke
  • 8/1 Oliver Letwin
  • 10/1 Liam Fox
  • 10/1 Michael Portillo
  • 20/1 Michael Howard

October 2005 – David Cameron takes over from Michael Howard

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The betting on next Tory leader in April 2005 (earliest date I could find Ladbrokes’ odds):

  • 5/2 David Davis
  • 6/1 Liam Fox
  • 9/1 David Cameron
  • 10/1 Andrew Lansley
  • 12/1 Theresa May
  • 12/1 Malcolm Rifkind
  • 12/1 Tim Collins (!)
  • 20/1 William Hague
  • 20/1 John Bercow
  • 22/1 George Osborne

(Tim Collins was the MP for Westmorland & Lonsdale who suffered a shock defeat to Tim Farron in the 2005 general election. Farron is now favourite to be next LD leader.)

I suppose you could conclude from that that it might be best to look for an outsider again this time. Here are Ladbrokes’ latest odds for Cameron’s successor:

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I’m on George Osborne at 33/1.

 

 

 

 

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Author

Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.