Newark latest betting news & Ladbrokes prediction

Here are the latest prices on today’s Newark by-election. Ladbrokes will have betting available until at least 6pm.

The prices had been steady for a couple of days, but we took a £5,000 bet on the Tories at 1/10 on Wednesday evening and have shortened them up to 1/14.

Plenty of people have had a bet on Bus Pass Elvis to beat the Liberal Democrats – that’s now 16/1 from 25/1. I’m not too worried.

Here’s my stab at a prediction of the result. It’s based on the bets we’ve taken, plus the feedback and opinion I picked up from voters, party workers and candidates on my two days in Newark.

• 39% Conservatives
• 30% UKIP
• 16% Labour
• 5% Paul Baggaley (Ind)
• 4% Liberal Democrats
• 3% Greens
• 55% Turnout

That would equate to a Tory majority of around 3,500 votes.

Here’s how the bets taken beaks down;

And here’s how the money staked has gone;

So, fewer but much bigger bets on a Conservative win.