King of Stats: Frankie’s favourite Treve looks unstoppable
Yesterday it was Kingman who delivered and on day two at Royal Ascot it’s fabulous filly Treve who is set to do the business in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
The trends don’t lie and neither does our King of Stats. Here’s all you need to know ahead of a renewal that looks sewn up for the Christiane Head-Maarek-trained charge.
– There have been only two winners of this race aged over 5 in the last 30 years. As if you needed another reason, it’s probably best to put a line through massive outsider Zambucca now.
– Nine out of 10 of the previous victors finished either first or second last time out. That’s not a statistic that bodes well for the likes of The Fugue and Dank who were most recently sighted toiling on the Tapeta at Meydan.
– There’s better news for fans of Treve though. Four out of the last 10 Prince of Wales’s Stakes winners (four of the last seven) had run in a Group 1 race at Longchamp earlier in the year. It’s probably best to lump on the Prix Ganay runner-up then?
– She may be short in the betting but there’s further positive news for the Frankie Dettori-ridden filly, as well as Magician, Mukhadram and The Fugue. Each of the previous 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below and came from the first four in the betting, much like this quartet.
– Four out of 10 of the previous winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time out. Perhaps there’s hope for Magician yet? Trainer Aidan O’Brien enjoys a 2-4-8 (wins-places-runners) record with his first string since 2004.
– Let’s try and make this renewal a bit more open, shall we? Each of the past 10 winners had run a Group 1 between 1m1f and 1m4f last time out. Only Elkaayed and Parish Hall miss the cut on that front.
– And to completely contradict our previous point and nail our colours to the mast here’s the only statistic worth noting. In five of the last eight years the favourite has won the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. Look no further than Treve to continue that trend.
Our winner: Treve
Watch Treve race clear of the chasing pack to land the 2013 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe!
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