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King of Stats: 3 against Royal Ascot’s Diamond Jubilee field

| 21.06.2014

Royal Ascot’s final Group 1 race, the Diamond Jubilee stakes, has showcased the talents of equine superstars such as Choisir and Black Caviar since the turn of the century, and there’s some smart animals lining up for this year’s run of the prestigious 6f event.

To help guide you through the betting pitfalls in Berkshire, we’ve borrowed her madge’s jewel-encrusted crown and cast our regal eyes over the best trends and stats ahead of the 4.25 race.

Nine of the last 10 winners have been American, Australian or Irish bred

British-bred horses account for a whopping 52 of the 171 runners in this race over the past decade, but only Cape of Good Hope has taken it for the home team in the last 10 runs, and that was nine years ago when Ascot moved to York for the season.

That takes Jack Dexter, Medicean Man, Music Master and Tawhid out of our reckoning, while French-bred horses’ record of one place since 2004 doesn’t bode well for in-form raider American Devils’ hopes.

Nine of the last 10 winners had run within the past 45 days and previously won over 6f

Of the remaining challengers, well-fancied Roger Varian 4/1 shot Aljamaaheer has to go, having last run when beaten into third as 5/4 favourite in April at Newmarket.

Richard Hannon’s Montiridge also gets cut here, after failing to triumph in his first start over 6f last time out.

Only five of the last 10 winners have been either three or four-years-old, but those triumphs have all come in the last six runs

This is clearly a developing trend that’s only been broken since 2008 by the phenomenal Black Caviar, who took this two years ago as a six-year-old.

We therefore wave goodbye to Es Que Love, Gordon Lord Byron, Hawkeyethenoo, 3/1 favourite Slade Power and Tropics, as they’re all a tad long in the tooth.

The verdict

That leaves us with both Aidan O’Brien runners Darwin and Due Diligence, at 16/1 and 6/1 respectively, and Kevin Ryan’s Astaire at 8/1 for punters in the mood for a mob-handed crack at Ascot.

All three are Irish-bred, like five of the last ten winners, but as the only one of the trio to triumph in a group race over 6f – a key pointer to the Jubilee winner in recent years – and at that a Group 1, Astaire is the premier pick at 8/1.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Author

Alex Fortune