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Real Madrid to beat Bayern Munich but not without concession

| 22.04.2014

This semi-final match-up is the most glamorous tie of the Champions League so far between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich at the Bernabeu, with many believing that the eventual winner of this year’s competition will be the team left standing after two legs.

In fact this last-four encounter between European royalty was played out as recently as two seasons ago, when the dreaded penalty shoot-out was the only way of separating the sides after each team had won their respective home clashes 2-1.

Fast forward to the present day and when attempting to decipher the result of this first leg, it’s a combination of a historical trend and the Spanish side’s imperious home form which can be used as guidance.

On the last four visits to the Bernabeu in Europe’s top competition Bayern have lost in the 90 minutes, adding no small attraction to the hosts’ price of 11/8 to take an advantage to the Allianz Arena.

Meanwhile, the recently anointed Copa del Rey winners are unbeaten in 17 consecutive home matches in Europe, winning 15 of those.

Even for a side as talented as the visiting Bundesliga champions, it will be a tall order to leave Madrid with a win on this evidence, though Carlo Ancelotti’s side keeping Arjen Robben and co at bay feels almost as unlikely.

Pep Guardiola’s charges have found the opposition net at least once in every one of their Champions League games to date, scoring 10 times from five games on their travels as well.

Therefore, a bet which jumps off the page is the 29/10 about Real winning a match in which both teams get on the scoresheet.

Also worth noting is that a single-goal margin has been enough for either side to win the home leg from the last four clashes, so the 33/10 on Madrid repeating the trick has ample justification.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Christian Crowther

Give Christian a sport with anything remotely spherical in it and he’ll happily while away the hours watching it on the box. However, he’d much prefer writing about, playing or betting on golf, football, cricket, tennis, snooker.... you get the picture.