England to win at Lord’s, with Bairstow and Finn to play parts
Were it not for two stubborn 10th-wicket partnerships at Trent Bridge, England would have beaten Australia by a far greater margin than 14 runs and there is every reason to believe that the result will be far more comfortable at Lord’s.
England are 5/6 to move into a 2-0 Ashes lead in the second Test and Lord’s is a ground where they have triumphed in seven of their last 10 Tests.
The big decision for England is whether to drop Steven Finn, but although he is struggling for a bit of confidence, the faster conditions at Lord’s will play to his strengths.
Meanwhile, he has taken four wickets in each of his last three bowling innings at the ground and has a preference for bowling at the opposite end to fellow seamers James Anderson and Stuart Broard, which could influence his selection.
It is 6/4 that Finn takes over 2.5 wickets in the Australian first innings this time.
England over-relied on their bowlers in the first Test and more of the same can be expected here, given that they have only surpassed 354 once in their last seven first-innings totals at Lord’s.
Therefore, the 5/6 offered that England score 375 or less in their first innings this time may be worth accepting.
Based on previous form at the ground, Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen look the better options to be England’s top first innings runscorer, as both average over 60 with the bat.
However, Jonny Bairstow has been a success in this market in England’s last two Lord’s Tests, with 95 against South Africa, following up with 41 against New Zealand.
Bairstow is 5/6 to score 26 or more in the first innings against Australia and a potentially lucrative 10/1 to be top English runscorer in the first innings for the third Lord’s Test in succession.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.