Tsonga can reach first French Open semi at Federer’s expense
The French Open quarter finals are now upon us, with Roger Federer and David Ferrer attempting to do their bit to ensure that the top four seeds are the last four competitors standing.
However, while a smooth passage is foreseeable for one of the pair, trouble may lie ahead for the other in their respective meetings with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tommy Robredo.
Aside from the probable semi final between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, this game was arguably the most eagerly hoped for when the French Open draw was completed.
The pair memorably went five sets at Wimbledon in 2011 when Tsonga battled back from two sets down to triumph, while Federer grounded out a fifth-set victory at this very stage at the Australian Open in January.
This clash represents a 36th successive Grand Slam quarter final for Federer and he is the 8/15 favourite to progress, which could be partly down to the fact that he has won the last five completed showdowns between the pair.
Meanwhile, Federer has already won back-to-back matches with home hopes in the last two rounds in dumping out Julien Benneteau and Gilles Simon.
For Tsonga, the home crowd in Paris will have to be an advantage, while he should be spurred on by the prospect of reaching a first-ever French Open semi final, especially after wasting four match points against Djokovic at this stage 12 months ago.
Tsonga is yet to drop a set in reaching the quarter finals and should be fresher than Federer, who went the distance against Simon.
Much will come down to how aggressive Tsonga is on his serve and his forehands aimed at Federer’s backhand, alongside the number of unforced errors the Swiss maestro throws in.
There is no doubting the achievements and will to win of Robredo in reaching this stage, winning successive five-setters against Igor Sijsling, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro.
However, these lengthy mental and physical matches must catch up with him eventually and it would be no surprise to see him virtually capitulate against Ferrer.
Ferrer has won six of their eight career meetings and arguably most importantly this time, only dropped five games in seeing of Kevin Anderson in the last round, while Robredo was having his latest ding-dong.
Given that Robredo has dropped the first set in each of these five setters too, the 1/7 that Ferrer takes the opening set is hard to oppose, alongside the 1/6 that he not only wins the first set, but then goes on to take the match.
For those wanting slightly better value, the 4/5 that the match is over in under 29.5 games could also prove profitable.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.