14:30 Royal Ascot: Ihtimal can upset the Chesham trends
History suggests that the winner of the Chesham Stakes is a horse that arrives on the back of a single racecourse appearance that resulted in a victory and is present in the top four of the betting.
Three entrants could well fit this criteria this year, but it may instead pay to go against the trends this time with Ihtimal in the field.
Ihtimal is yet to taste victory on her two career starts, but it certainly cannot be argued that her two second-place finishes have come behind mugs, as both her performances came against horses to run creditably in the Albany Stakes earlier at Royal Ascot.
Kiyoshi was arguably one of the most impressive victors of the week and didn’t beat Ihtimal by far and then the latter returned to finish just a neck adrift of Wedding Ring.
Given that this pair have proved their credentials in Group 3 company, it is no surprise that Ihtimal has already been supported into 8/1 to triumph in this Listed contest.
Fillies also have a strong record in this contest as they have been responsible for three winners in the last 10 years and at least one placed finisher in each of the last two.
Of those once-raced entrants towards the head of the betting who are yet to taste defeat, Somewhat looks the most appealing contender at 7/2.
Mark Johnston has a decent record in this race and Somewhat romped away at Musselburgh when dictating from the front, which makes him the only horse in this field that has previously won over the Chesham distance of 7f.
He ran very greenly that day and is entitled to come on immensely for the display, even if it was only just over a week ago.
Both these entrants are among the five in the field that have a current Racing Post Rating above 98, which is the lowest mark of any winner in the last five seasons.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.