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Dortmund v Malaga: Visitors can sneak though on away goals

| 08.04.2013

Sometimes in football things just aren’t deserved. Bayern Munich losing the last Champions League final and Switzerland being eliminated from the 2006 World Cup without conceding a goal are two that instantly spring to mind.

Borussia Dortmund are the only team still in this season’s Champions League yet to lose in the competition and it would be equally unfortunate should they not reach the semi finals if they avoid defeat in the second leg of their quarter final with Malaga.

However, a score draw at Signal Iduna Park would see Dortmund eliminated and this can be backed at 9/2.

The obvious result is to opt for the home win at 2/5, given not only that Dortmund have won all four home games in this season’s Champions League, but they were supremely dominant in the first leg with Malaga.

Dortmund did everything but score in Spain and there is every chance that they will have the majority of possession and chances again.

But Dortmund have only kept two clean sheets in their last nine games and Malaga have taken positive results from away games with the likes of AC Milan and Zenit this season in fixtures where they went in as underdogs.

Manager Manuel Pellegrini also has history in this competition in taking unfancied teams to the latter stages, leading Villarreal to the semi finals earlier this century in their first season in the Champions League.

It is 9/4 he repeats this with Malaga by seeing them through to the semi finals through either a win, draw or penalties.

Dortmund’s chances should additionally be aided by the return to fitness of Mats Hummels, but it is worth noting that they are unbeaten this season in the seven fixtures without the central defender.

In fact, their win percentage is just over 50 per cent with Hummels, compared to over 70 per cent without him.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Author

Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.