14:30 Aintree: Sea Of Thunder to be latest to upset Dynaste
Going in search of an outsider is not typically a profitable strategy in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase, but this could be the year of the outlier as Sea Of Thunder should relish the ground far more than those at the head of the market.
Dynaste heads the betting at 7/4 as he looks to jump back on the winning bandwagon after having to settle for bridesmaid honours when well-backed to land the Jewson Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The step back up to 3m1f is likely to be appreciated here, but his best form is undoubtedly when there is some cut in the ground.
He failed to quicken in his usual manner at Cheltenham and particularly interesting is the fact that he has never won a single race in a National Hunt season after the turn of the year.
Vino Griego (7/1) is another that may not appreciate the good ground in comparison to a softer surface and so can be opposed too.
Rocky Creek missed Cheltenham and showed a particularly likeable attitude on his last start when winning at Ascot in February.
Of the market leaders, he holds the most appeal at 5/2, but there is a feeling that he may prefer travelling left handed and that he may find one too good. Backing him each-way looks the safest play if his price goes on the drift.
Although Sea Of Thunder is considered the worst in the line-up on the basis of official ratings, he is clearly a horse that is reliant more than most on the state of the ground.
He absolutely needs a firmer surface and showed this when romping to success earlier in the season in a novice chase in Ireland.
Punters willing to forgive his two runs since could be in for rich rewards here at 15/2.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.