History points to Haggas’ Rosdhu Queen to continue Guineas trends

The Rowley Mile on the first Sunday of May has not been the most fertile of grounds for punters in recent years but instead of being deterred there are some trends that should be encouraging for the second Classic of the season.

Three of the last four winners of the prestigious 1m race for fillies have been priced between 16-1 and 25-1 and although that statistic won’t make any of the relevant horses run any faster, it does make the task of swerving the market principals an easier one.

Another recurring theme in the last decade is the presence of winning course form in the first campaigns of recent winners. Five of the last nine to capture the prize had already visited the winning enclosure at HQ and although that brings a lot of the field into the equation, it’s not a bad place to start.

The likes of exciting ante-post jollies Certify from Godolphin and Charlie Hills’ Just The Judge meet that criteria, but numbers of 6/1 the pair are tough reading with so many question marks around and to emerge between now and the actual race.

One horse that fits both bills perfectly is last year’s Cheveley Park winner Rosdhu Queen. William Haggas is yet to add the race to his substantial resume but there are plenty of reasons to think that his unbeaten daughter of Invincible Spirit could change all that.

Both Natagora in 2007 and Special Duty in 2009 won the Group 1 contest before going onto Guineas glory the year after and at 20/1, Haggas’ star could represent some serious value at this point in the calendar.

There won’t be a shortage of critics willing to pick apart the form of that race last September but she seems an uncomplicated filly, winning all four starts with different jockeys aboard.

Ante-post betting is notoriously perilous, but whereas the balance of risk and reward is not quite right with those at the very front of the betting, Rosdhu Queen has enough in favour to make the speculation worthwhile.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.