Long-standing trend rules fancied three out of Grand National
Prince De Beauchene (8/1), On His Own (10/1) and Seabass (16/1) are the three favourites for this year’s Grand National but based on one long-standing trend, there is no way that any of them can win.
Looking at all of the renewals since Mr Frisk’s triumph in 1990, every horse barring Ballabriggs in 2011 had run at least four times in the same season previously before arriving at Aintree and even Ballabriggs had run three times.
As things stand, Prince De Beauchene, On His Own and Seabass have run just the once each.
Even though there is still suitable time to take in some more preparation runs, it is unlikely that any of the runners will take to the racecourse another two or more times before Aintree to make it to three seasonal appearances.
Therefore, it may be a wise move for punters to rule this trio out and make a Grand National pick from further down the betting.
When looking at the last 22 Grand National races, it is somewhat amazing that half of the winners had run exactly six times before turning up at Aintree.
Across The Bay has had five runs in his campaign to date and given that the last was over hurdles, he may well have one more start over fences to complete his preparation.
The fact that he is from the yard of Donald McCain is an obvious Grand National plus and he seems to enjoy Aintree, never finishing out of the first three on his three starts at the course.
Stamina should really be no issue either, as he is a previous winner over 3m2f and has solid form on heavy ground, either winning or placing in nine of his 14 starts on such a surface.
Furthermore, he has shown class in the past, finishing third in a Grade One hurdle behind Big Buck’s and a wind operation seemed to work a treat last time, as his first run since ended in victory.
Taking everything into consideration, Ladbrokes’ best price of 40/1 on Across The Bay winning the Grand National has plenty of appeal.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.