Don’t read into Pipe’s Midlands National win ahead of Aintree
For some punters, the form of the yard has an impact ahead of placing a bet and there may be a temptation to back The Package to win the Grand National.
Cheltenham didn’t go as well as David Pipe would have hoped as he failed to train a single winner, but he soon bounced back to saddle Big Occasion to victory in the Midlands Grand National.
This may enhance confidence in Pipe’s three entries for Aintree – The Package (25/1), Problema Tic (50/1) and Swing Bill (66/1).
However, Pipe has also trained the Midlands National winner in the past two years through Minella Four Star and Master Overseer and these victories have not brought further success at Aintree.
In fact, Pipe’s most fancied National horse in the last two years has failed to finish and it has been his highest-priced horse that has gained the best result, albeit outside of the each-way places for punters.
Comply Or Die pulled up in 2011 at 25/1, with Piraya at 100/1 completing the course, while 12 months ago Junior fell over at 16/1, while Swing Bill finished 10th despite being heavily hampered at The Chair on the second circuit.
This doesn’t bode well for The Package, although a repeat of the performance which saw him finish fourth in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier this season behind Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth would give him a chance.
The problem is that he has pulled up on both starts since, including in the JLT Speciality Handicap at the Festival.
Swing Bill was another to fail to feature at Cheltenham after finishing down the field in the Kim Muir, but was impacted slightly by the fall of Galaxy Rock, which certainly didn’t aid his chances, neither did the wide racing line he took throughout.
Taking everything into consideration, Swing Bill may be the better Grand National bet at present for Pipe followers over The Package.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.