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Correct score markets offer best value as England visit San Marino

| 20.03.2013

In a game to be played at a neutral venue in Italy, England must dispose of Group H minnows San Marino to pile the pressure on leaders Montenegro.

And it looks an incredibly straightforward task for them to do so, as proven by their 1/250 price to win the game, with the ‘home’ side 66/1 shots to succeed, and the draw 14/1.

Punters can have an astronomical 20/1 about any San Marino player opening the scoring meanwhile, again illustrating the utter ease England should triumph by.

However, San Marino did break the deadlock when they last met the Three Lions as the home side, and some may invest in them doing so again, amid the news that Michael Carrick is to play as a makeshift central defender.

The best value in the game does look to come from correct score markets though, with a dominant away win the likeliest outcome, and patriotic punters should take a keen interest in these.

The Three Lions’ 5-0 success over San Marino earlier in this World Cup qualifying campaign represented the narrowest scoreline England have ever prevailed by against this opposition.

But with the ‘hosts’ possessing a -16 goal difference after four group outings so far, perhaps an even lower 4-0 away win is the way to go this time, in keeping with that average.

It is 5/1 about that scenario playing out, whilst a repeat of the 5-0 English success from last year can also be backed at the same price.

In their other two encounters with San Marino meanwhile, England ran out winners by 6-0 and 7-1 margins.

6/1 is the price attributed to repetition of the former scoreline materialising, whilst it is 28/1 Roy Hodgson’s men are victorious by means of a 7-1 result.

Of course, much heftier prices would usually be applicable to such one-sided scorelines, but such is the ease that England are expected to triumph by, the odds are shortened accordingly.

Correct score markets still look the best way to find any sort of value in this fixture though, as the Three Lions look to scale the top of Group H.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



John Klee