Swansea overpriced for late goal in Capital One Cup semi with Chelsea
There are certainly foundations to believe Swansea are capable of avoiding defeat at Stamford Bridge in the first leg of their Capital One Cup semi final with Chelsea, but the better betting proposition relates to which band of minutes they can be expected to score in.
Swansea have never beaten Chelsea in their three modern-day clashes, but they have only lost one of their last seven fixtures on the road this season in all competitions.
It is 13/2 that Swansea win this one, with the draw on offer at 7/2, which has been the outcome of their last two encounters with Chelsea.
Alternatively, a price of 9/5 is available in the double chance market that Swansea either win or draw at Stamford Bridge. The chances of this are boosted by the fact Chelsea have only prevailed in two of their last six at home in all competitions.
However, the value offering for the first leg is arguably the 4/1 that Swansea score between the 75th minute and the final whistle.
Breaking the 90 minutes of action into six 15 minute slots, Swansea have scored eight times in the latest of these in the Premier League this season. They have not netted more in any other of these 15-minute periods.
Furthermore, they have scored in the last ten minutes of all four of their Capital One Cup outings this season, which is a good habit to get into.
Another boost to this bet is that in the three top-flight meetings with Chelsea since Swansea reached the Premier League, five goals have been scored in the final 15 minutes, including Pablo Hernandez’ equaliser at the Liberty in November.
It is 14/5 that Swansea simply score the last goal again here.
All odds and markets accurate as of publication’s time and date