Fulham prime relegation candidates if they don’t beat Liverpool
Fulham have not really been spoken about as serious relegation candidates so far this season and a price of 18/1 to finish in the bottom three suggests that they should have little trouble finding safety.
However, looking back across the last six seasons, there are some clear similarities between Fulham’s current position and others at a similar point of the campaign that have ended up going down.
Analysing the final Premier League tables before the Boxing Day round of fixtures, no team in the past decade that has amassed 23 points or more by this point have been relegated.
But five teams in this time have had 20 points or more, which brings Fulham right into the reckoning.
They would make it to 23 points and probable safety with a win at Liverpool next, which can be backed at 9/2, but they have only triumphed once at Anfield in their 11 Premier League visits.
The only confidence that Fulham can have is that this success was last season and Liverpool have not beaten a team above 17th in the current standings at home this campaign.
Key to Fulham surviving will obviously be their home form and many will expect that they can take nine points or more from remaining home games with Reading, QPR, Wigan and Southampton.
This will be critical, as it was the home form of Blackpool, Middlesbrough and Newcastle that saw them face the drop in recent seasons when in similar positions to Fulham at Christmas.
Blackpool only won three home games against the bottom 13, Middlesbrough triumphed in just one at the Riverside against the bottom seven and Newcastle took maximum points against three of the bottom 11.
Fulham have lost at home to fifth-bottom Sunderland already and so it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they will drop more unexpected points at Craven Cottage.
Their away form is also not historically the best and so it is a surprise that ten teams are shorter than Fulham to be relegated. 18/1 certainly looks a price worthy of a small investment.
All odds and markets accurate as of publication’s time and date