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West Indies a poor value outside bet to win World T20 crown

| 05.10.2012

West Indies’ Super Over victory over New Zealand, coupled with England’s defeat at the hands of Sri Lanka, enabled them to make their second World T20 semi-final, yet their price to end the week with their name engraved on the trophy is way too short.

They’re 3/1 to win it, which makes them the outsiders of the four, but their records against their fellow semi-finalists leaves a lot to be desired and their sluggish tournament to date has seen them crawl to the final four, rather than cruise.

They made it out of the group stage in very fortunate circumstances – getting less of a hammering off Australia than Ireland did. Sri Lanka were the top side in their Super Eights division and they dished out a beating for the West Indians too; a nine-wicket drubbing proving that they are way off the pace set by the world’s elite in this competition.

Had Tim Southee not made the cardinal sin of bowling a no-ball in the aptly named Super Over (which was also clubbed for a maximum to boot), New Zealand would be preparing for a grudge match with the Aussies for a berth in the final.

Chris Gayle has been his usual self with the bat, smashing all comers into the car park with an average of 36 from four innings, including two 50’s, but their bowling and fielding departments have been found wanting, not for the first time.

Spin has been the field in which they have struggled most, Gayle having to pitch in much more than he should have with his non-turning off-break. Sunil Narine, whom was subject of enough in-house hype prior to the tournament to fuel the Windies’ plane to Sri Lanka, had only picked up the solitary wicket (against Ireland) prior to the New Zealand game.

He sent three batsman back to the hutch in that one, but his average of 28.25 – significantly decreased by a face-saving performance last time – depicts his insignificance. It is easy to see the Aussies taking him apart in the semi.

The 4/6 on offer for them to send the West Indies home is very generous and probably influenced by their defeat to Pakistan. This game should have no bearing on their next performance, which could render this price one of the tournament’s best.

West Indies record against Australia also highlights the incredible value of their price. They’ve come out on top in five of the last six T20 internationals, with in-form Shane Watson notching three half-tons in the process.

Sri Lanka have also dominated the T20 head-to-head with the West Indies, casting further doubt on their chances of lifting the trophy should they somehow avoid defeat in the semi-final.

The tournament hosts and favourites have won four in four over their Caribbean adversaries. This signifies the enormity of the task on Darren Sammy’s men’s hands if they are to claim the world crown and is one of many reasons to avoid backing them to pull off an upset.

All odds and markets accurate as of publication’s time and date

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Author

James Middleton