St Nicolas Abbey way overpriced for Arc compared to Camelot
St Nicholas Abbey is almost the forgotten horse of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and 14/1 seems a tremendous each-way price that he finishes in the first three at Longchamp.
The big issue with the horse is that he has consistently found one or two too good in the top races this season, but there are almost excuses for each of these performances.
St Nicholas Abbey has been third in each of his last three starts, with the first of these an interesting display behind Danedream and Nathaniel in the King George at Royal Ascot.
However, he was given far too much to do by Joseph O’Brien having been held up way off the pace and was arguably finishing the quickest in the latter stages.
He got to within closer than two lengths of the front two and would have arguably been involved in the photo finish if ridden slightly more prominently.
Based on this, his quote of 14/1 for the Arc looks especially large given that Danedream is 4/1 and Nathaniel 6/1.
St Nicholas Abbey’s two runs since have been over an inadequate 1m2f, chasing home speed machine Frankel at York and then fellow Arc entrant Snow Fairy in Ireland.
A step back up to his optimum distance should be ideal and assuming he gets an uninterrupted passage through the field, he can finish in the first three.
Stablemate Camelot is a far less guaranteed runner, but even if the Epsom Derby winner does turn up, 5/1 looks a short price.
In theory connections have nothing to lose as his St Leger defeat will be forgotten should he triumph in the Arc.
But Masked Marvel has not won another race since landing the St Leger last season, which goes to show how tough the race can be to recover from.
Meanwhile, the general weakness of the three-year-old crop this season has been well documented and there are doubts to how good Camelot actually is.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing