Reliable Man an insult of an Arc price if he shows up
40/1 would have a been a big price on Reliable Man winning the Arc if the field remained at full strength, but this now looks a bit of an insult given the recent glut of withdrawals.
Reliable Man doesn’t really do winning races, but is often there or thereabouts in the closing stages of races, coming with a strong-looking run without ever really looking likely to catch the eventual victor.
However, much of his form this season suggests he is capable of running into the places again at Longchamp.
The biggest indicator of this was his performance in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July, when finishing a close fourth behind Danedream, Nathaniel and St Nicholas Abbey.
Danedream was initially installed as the favourite to win a second successive Arc before he was forced to pull out after getting held up in Cologne.
Nathaniel was another prominent in the Arc betting before an unsatisfactory blood test resulted in him being declared a non runner.
St Nicholas Abbey does remain and is another to have solid each-way credentials for the Arc at 10/1.
But given that Reliable Man only finished a head behind St Nicholas Abbey in the King George, it is slightly surreal that he is four times the price.
Sea Moon is another that is 10/1 for the Arc and actually finished behind Reliable Man in the King George.
Ladbrokes are currently offering the best price on Reliable Man and this will look even bigger each-way value should some rain fall at Longchamp in the coming days, with the softer the ground the better.
He did not appreciate the fast surface when finishing last but one in the Arc last year, but this was not a true reflection of his best form.
All odds and markets correct as of publication