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Wigan v Stoke: Hosts a big price, but draw best bet

| 01.09.2012

Wigan should secure a home victory over Stoke based on their midweek results in the Capital One Cup, but Premier League history suggests that a draw is the better bet at 9/4.

A tie away at upwardly mobile Championship club Nottingham Forest was expected to present Wigan with a stern test, but the banana skin quickly proved not to be very slippery as they ran out 4-1 winners.

In contrast, Stoke should have easily brushed aside Swindon at home, but despite picking a close to full strength team, Tony Pulis watched his side get eliminated in extra time.

Therefore, 5/4 looks great value on a Wigan win, but punters should beware that home wins have not proved typically common in this fixture.

Only twice in 11 meetings have the home side prevailed.

The good news for Wigan is that one of these was last season, while they are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Stoke and the visitors are on a winless run of ten games on the road in the top-flight.

It is the same price as the draw at 9/4 that Stoke break their away-day blues with a win in Wigan.

Another interesting market is in which minute the opening goal will be scored, as despite Stoke’s lack of away goals, the deadlock is often broken early in fixtures featuring Wigan.

In fact, nine goals have been scored in the opening 15 minutes of Wigan’s last eight league games and it is 10/3 that the first goal comes in the opening ten minutes here.

Victor Moses scored against Stoke in both league meetings last season, but as he has now left the club, Roberto Martinez will have to rely on a replacement.

Arouna Kone is favourite to strike first at 5/1, but Jordi Gomez was on target at Nottingham Forest and may be a better option at 10/1.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Author

Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.