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Timeform ratings suggest Danedream can defend Arc title

| 30.09.2012

Danedream is bidding to become the first horse since Alleged in 1978 to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in successive years and the Timeform ratings for this year suggests that she can do it.

There are joint favourites at the head of the Arc betting, with Danedream joined by Japanese entrant Orfevre at 4/1.

Danedream slightly slipped under the radar for the Arc last year having been supplemented as a late entrant by connections, but ran out a hefty five-length victor.

Timeform have rated this performance particularly highly and given Danedream an adjusted rating of 143, which is three points higher than any other entrant.

This does seem slightly fair as the five runners that finished closest to Danedream last year are all Group One winners in the current Flat season, which shows the strength of this form.

Meanwhile, although Danedream has not quite managed to run to the same level in her campaign to date, the fact remains that she has won on six of her last eight starts.

Furthermore, she has beaten leading Arc rival Nathaniel already this season.

Given that the three-year-old challenge is looking thin on the ground, Orfevre is the only real leading Arc fancy that Danedream has not previously beaten.

Orfevre looked to have more in the tank when landing the Prix Foy at Longchamp, but Deep Impact was another Japanese entrant that was previously well backed into favouritism for the Arc in 2006.

But he only finished third before eventually being disqualified and there are doubts as to whether Orfevre can perform any better.

Orfevre has been handed a Timeform rating of 140, alongside top mare Snow Fairy, with Nathaniel next best at 139.

All odds and markets correct as of publication



Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.