15:40 York: O’Brien tactics will not help St Nicholas Abbey beat Frankel
Frankel only has to turn up to win the Juddmonte International, but the betting without the 1/8 favourite is not so predictable.
St Nicholas Abbey is regarded as the obvious candidate to finish second at 4/5, but he has underperformed on more than one occasion over 1m2f.
Looking at the formbook, St Nicholas Abbey has never won over the distance and finished second to inferior stablemate Windsor Palace on the latest of these, albeit there were excuses for this result.
On the plus side for St Nicholas Abbey, trainer Aidan O’Brien has effectively entered two other horses to try to turn the Juddmonte into a stamina test.
Frankel’s regular pace-setter Bullet Train is once again in the field, but the likes of Windsor Palace and Robin Hood will be tasked of disrupting this plan.
With this being Frankel’s first run over 1m2f, there are question marks over his stamina and stretching this seems the plan of the Ballydoyle team.
However, in trying and probably failing to beat Frankel, St Nicholas Abbey may also give up second.
Farhh took second behind Frankel at Goodwood earlier this month and is 7/2 in the betting without Frankel market here.
He is likely to be thereabouts again, but the quick ground at York will not play to his strengths.
Therefore, at the prices it may pay to side with Twice Over to make a worthy defence of the crown that he claimed last year by finishing second behind his illustrious stablemate.
It is 5/1 that Twice Over wins in the betting market without Frankel and he has never been out of the first three in four career starts at York.
With nine runners in the field for the Juddmonte, this statistic may additionally make 20/1 big each-way value for Twice Over.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.