Trends point towards Dazinski in Northumberland Plate

There are six big trends that have been particularly pivotal in the Northumberland Plate in the past decade and if these are to be followed this year, then Dazinski looks the clear winner at 20/1.

Analysing the official ratings has proved a lucrative strategy for punters of late, with all of the last nine winners of the Newcastle handicap being rated between 85 and 93.

This leaves just a third of the 45 horses still entered and this figure can be narrowed down further as nine of the last ten winners had finished in the first five in their final race before heading to Newcastle.

Age has also had a growing impact on results, with the older horses tending to dominate in recent years.

Three of the last four winners were aged a minimum of six, while for some reason five-year-old runners have a particularly dreadful record.

High Office at 16/1 and 50/1 outsider Mystery Star are the only other two entrants to adhere to these trends, but both have some disadvantages when compared to Dazinski.

Class 4 is the highest level of race that High Office has previously won, which does not bode well for this Class 2 contest.

Meanwhile, Mystery Star has been beaten by almost a combined 250 lengths in his last three races and only finished fifth last time out because it was a five-runner race.

Dazinski won a Class Three last summer and appeared to be troubled by the soft ground in the Chester Cup earlier in the campaign.

Firmer ground would represent more optimum conditions, while the fact that seven of the last winners went off at a starting price of at least 14/1 further heightens his chances.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.