West Brom vs Bolton: Bolton the value bet based on goals
Bolton have to be considered a generous price at 11/4 to beat West Brom, especially given that they have managed twice as many goals as the hosts in the Premier League this season.
West Brom hardly threatened Arsenal in their previous game, while Bolton took a mighty first step towards turning their season around with a 5-0 win against Stoke.
Yet West Brom remain favourites at 1/1 to triumph and this must solely be because they have home advantage.
The Baggies have only netted nine goals in 11 games in the Premier League, while free-scoring Bolton have bagged as many as Tottenham, but their defensive woes see them languishing in 18th place.
Bolton’s league position has not been helped by their tough season-opening fixture list, playing Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and both Manchester sides – losing to all five.
Though backing the Trotters to win is worth a punt at this price.
The Baggies have scored just three goals at home this season, and only nine in total. Do not expect a West Bromwich Albion goal-fest even though Bolton have conceded 27 goals after 11 games this term, the second highest ever in the Premier League at this stage.
West Brom have conceded five goals in as many home league games, and Ivan Klasnic will pose a threat up front after netting two against Stoke before the international break. The Croatian has scored five this season and is 9/4 to score at any time in the 90 minutes.
For West Brom, much will depend on whether Shane Long is passed fit after his withdrawal from the Republic of Ireland squad for their midweek Euro 2012 play-off tussle with Estonia.
Long is 6/4 to score at any time, but given his injury doubts, the safer option is almost undoubtedly Peter Odemwingie, who can be backed at 6/5 in the same market and will fancy his chances given Bolton’s poor defensive record this season.