Federer vs Ferrer: Not to be unlucky 13 for Federer
David Ferrer may have already enjoyed straight-set victories over Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic at the ATP World Tour Finals, but gaining a first career win over Roger Federer in the semi finals in London may be a little too much to ask.
In a tournament full of upsets, Federer is the only one of the top four players in the world to reach the semi finals and is unsurprisingly the 4/11 favourite in the tennis odds to win the tournament for a record-breaking sixth time.
He is also extremely short at 1/10 to see off the second highest-ranked player left in, but there are two good reasons for this price.
Ferrer has never beaten Federer in their 12th previous career meetings, with six of these defeats coming on hard courts.
Meanwhile, Ferrer has only ever won one set in these six meetings and was comprehensively beaten 6-1, 6-4 in London last year in the group stages.
Ferrer may be playing better at this moment in time, but he will need to be at his absolute best to have any chance of beating Federer.
This is unlikely given that the Spaniard will have had less than 16 hours off the court from his final group stage match with Tomas Berdych before beginning his encounter with Federer, meaning that tiredness is sure to kick in.
However, those fancying Ferrer to continue the run of shocks at the tournament can back him at 6/1 to beat Federer.
Bearing all this in mind and the knowledge that Federer triumphed in his two tournaments before arriving in London, the 3/10 that he brushes aside Ferrer in straight sets again looks the best bet on offer.
Another money-making option could be the 1/3 that Federer is the first of the two players to break the serve of their opponent.