Pick of the Pundits: Oppose Sahpresa in the 15:00 at Newmarket

The opening day of Newmarket’s July festival wasn’t a great day for the pundits with just eight of them napping a winner, and it’s no surprise to see half of them turn their attention away from the home of racing.

24 of the 50 Racing Post naps competition entrants are napping horses at the seven other race meetings across Great Britain and Ireland today, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see Sahpresa get eight naps in the 15:00 at Newmarket.

The 5/2 favourite is well-fancied for this one mile Falmouth Stakes with second favourite Antara as big as 6/1, but the form of the pundits is a worry for Sahpresa.

Of the eight tipsters, only one of them can boast a positive return for a £1 stake this month and none of them can boast a positive return for the season, suggesting Sahpresa is up against it this afternoon.

There’s no doubt Sahpresa is the one to beat today and the last time she was seen in this country he won the Sun Chariot Stakes over this course and trip in October and has since placed in races in Japan and Hong Kong at the highest level.

Her only start this season saw him comfortably land the Prix Du Palais-Royal at Longchamp last month and she comes to Newmarket with a track record of two wins in three starts.

French horses have a strong record in this race and Lily Of The Valley may be Sahpresa’s main danger but she is a drifter in the betting already this morning having seen her price drift from 11/2 to 7/1, but the good ground may be in her favour.

The ground has turned against Sahpresa and along with the form of the pundits those are two major negatives against the horse, and the better value is backing the French contender Lily Of The Valley.