Day 12 Mens – Rafa to rumble Murray’s run to Wimbledon glory
All eyes will be on Wimbledon for Andy Murray’s semi-final clash with Rafael Nadal on Friday, but the squeamish among us will want to bring sunglasses to shield those eyes from the mauling Murray is set to suffer.
I could sit here and try and make a case for Murray but frankly we should all accept the fact that Nadal is the dominant player and get our money on the Spaniard ahead of Friday’s clash.
Many will point to Nadal’s dodgy ankle but we could point to Murray’s dodgy hip and instead of finding reasons why Nadal won’t win tomorrow, I’ll tell you why he will.
The Spaniard is unbeaten in his last 19 matches at Wimbledon and the only man to have beaten Nadal on the grass courts at SW19 since his 2005 second round exit to Gilles Muller is Roger Federer.
Simply put, Nadal has 31 wins from his last 33 matches at Wimbledon and he is the value to win tomorrow at 4/9.
Murray has been in strong form this week but the opponents are no better than the ones he beat on the way to the 2010 Wimbledon semi-final with Nadal which the Spaniard won 3-0.
There will be plenty of patriotic money on Murray at 7/4 but it won’t be third-time lucky for the Scot who has lost both matches with Nadal at Wimbledon and both semi-finals he’s played at SW19.
Not only is Nadal ahead in grass court meetings but he’s ahead in Grand Slam head-to-heads (4-2) and in career head-to-heads (11-5).
In their first ever meeting in the 2007 Australian Open, Murray took Nadal five sets but in nine of Nadal’s victories over Murray have been in straight sets and the Spaniard is 2/1 to win 3-0.
Nadal has only been upset once in the 10 occasions he’s started a match with Murray 4/9 or shorter and generally when Murray beats Nadal, there’s confidence in the market with three of Nadal’s defeats to Murray coming when the Spaniard has started the match 4/6 or longer.