Djokovic’s unbeaten record to come to an end against Ferrer
Rafael Nadal’s supposedly tough draw looks as if it’s getting easier and easier with the world number one 1/200 to defeat Michael Llodra today.
With all the talk re-tournament about Nadal’s route to the final, the Spaniard looks set to breeze into the semi-final and punters should focus on the other three quarter-finals for value.
Thomaz Bellucci vs Tomas Berdych
Bellucci upset the Madrid Open odds when defeating Andy Murray yesterday and will have to do so again as the Brazilian is the 2/1 underdog to beat Berdych.
The two have met four times and Berdych holds a 3-1 head-to-head advantage and is 4/11 to win, although the two players have each won once on clay.
Berdych had a bad time in Monte Carlo and Bellucci made the quarter-finals in the Estoril Open last week so we’re backing the Brazilian to upset the odds and win the tie 2-1 at 9/2.
Roger Federer vs Robin Soderling
Soderling has only ever beaten Federer once but that result did come the last time these two players met on clay in last year’s French Open.
However Soderling’s form has been shocking in recent weeks and Federer should stroll through the tie, making the 4/9 a decent price considering Nadal’s odds of 1/200.
Federer has dropped just five sets against Soderling in 16 matches and the Swiss offers plenty of value at 11/10 to win 2-0.
David Ferrer vs Novak Djokovic
While Djokovic has been out with injury Ferrer has taken on the role as Nadal’s main contender and the Spaniard can end Djokovic’s unbeaten 2011 run today.
Many punters will be surprised by Ferrer’s odds of 5/2 to win considering his recent form and Ferrer has won all three of the meetings between the two players on clay – Djokovic is the 2/7 favourite.
Ferrer has lost to Nadal in the final of the last two clay court tournaments and a win today would set-up another potential final in Madrid.
A £10 stake on Ferrer winning the Madrid Open would return £170. Sign up here for a free Madrid Open bet worth up to £30.