16.50 Aintree: Punters get on the Ackertac in tricky handicap
The Topham Chase is a difficult race to predict, but finding the winner among the 22 Smithythehorse.com Handicap Hurdle entries is proving just as tasking.
As novices’ have won four of the last five renewals then punters should concentrate on the likes of Kilcrea Kim (7/1 favourite), Swingkeel (12/1) and Akertac (16/1).
Preference lies with the latter after he ran a big race in the Albert Bartlet Novices’ Hurdle behind Bobs Worth and has shown plenty of promise barring one poor performance at Kempton.
The trends suggest punters should be looking for a horse that has run at least four times this season with the final appearance being in March.
Five horses fulfil this criteria but considering there been just two winning five-year-olds in 22 runnings then we can rule out Dynaste (14/1), although David Pipe’s horse has more than a chance of finishing in the places.
That leaves us with four and looking at Mr Moonshine’s recent form – last in his previous two races – we can concentrate on Kilcrea Kim, Carpincho and Ackertac.
Kilcrea Kim is the favourite for a very good reason and he has to be respected by punters, but Ackertac is a big price at 20/1, and as he will carry 6lb less than Kilcrea Kim, we’re going for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old to upset the odds.
Carpincho has a great chance but has a new jockey on board and with all respect to Jack Doyle, his two career victories have come when AP McCoy and Jason Maguire was riding.
At 25/1 Carpincho is a more than decent each-way price and he can follow Ackertac and Kilcrea Kim across the line at Aintree.
A £20 stake on Ackertac winning the John Smith’s Smithythehorse.com Handicap Hurdle would return £340. New customers can sign up here to get £60 in free bets.