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Long Run to profit as favourite quota already filled

| 18.03.2011

Imperial Commander seems likely to go off favourite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting and this seems worth following based on the most recent results in the race.

Since foot and mouth resulted in the 2001 Festival being postponed, favourites have triumphed in over half of the renewals, winning five of the nine races to have taken place.

Meanwhile, there has not been a two-year sequence in this period where a favourite has not won the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Kauto Star was the beaten favourite last year and these recent statistics point towards the market leader landing the spoils again.

Imperial Commander is currently just favourite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting at 4/1, but with Long Run being supported into 9/2 from 5/1, it is hard to predict who will head the market at race time.

However, when taking into account the results of the big four races at previous Festivals, it appears that the favourite will lose this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Only once in the last five years has there been more than one winning favourite at a single Festival when also considering the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Ladbrokes World Hurdle.

This came in 2009 when there were two winning favourites and this feat has already been matched this year thanks to the victories of hurdling duo Hurricane Fly and Big Buck’s.

Therefore, with all of the last ten winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup having a starting price of 15/2 or shorter, it may be worth opposing Imperial Commander in favour of another of the market leaders.

At present Long Run is the only other challenger to be inside 15/2 and looking at the success of favourites, he may be the better bet.

A £20 stake on Long Run winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup would return £90. New customers can sign up here to take advantage of free bets totalling up to £60.



Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.