Want to know how the remaining acts in this year’s X Factor competition will fare?
We think we’ve cracked it. By looking at the respective acts’ categories, their previous performances and comparing them with contestants from yesteryear we’ve come up with a foolproof process to determine the final finishing order in the 2015 edition.
The category they are in could play a part in the comparison, as could the way they are portrayed to the public, the type of music they are tasked with singing, obstacles they are tasked with clearing (such as learning to dance) or the manner in which they are praised or criticised by the judges.
This is largely a subjective process, but we have given it a go in evaluating this year’s 13 live-show acts to others that have graced the X Factor stage previously.
We have additionally looked at where similar acts have finished on average in the past and used this to predict what the final finishing order may be this year.
Here are the results (sorry that we can’t drag it out or build suspense like Dermot O’Leary):
Males with soulful voices that generally sing well with little encouragement to perform have generally done well.
The average finish of Steve Brookstein, Andy Abraham, Ben Mills and Jahmene Douglas is second spot.
It’s obviously in the X Factor’s interest to get any act they believe has a post-show commercial career as far as possible.
Cher Lloyd was virtually dragged to the final previously through the considerable help of a first semi-final sing-off, while Fleur East was pimped and supported last year to help her finish second.
Most groups with commercial potential have also reached the latter stages, with the average position of G4, Same Difference, JLS, One Direction, Little Mix and Union J before 2.5.
Most years there is an act that the public clearly likes, but it is not the best result for the show if they win.
These acts tend to start a series highly positioned in the public vote and then show producers have to resort to their box of bring-down methods to try to derail support.
Anton’s hideous and clearly unsuited song mash-up in week two, alongside being given more of a routine to perform, appeared to be engineered to make him look weak and lacking in versatility.
We have placed Rhydian Roberts, Janet Devlin, Chris Maloney and Andrea Faustini in this category from previous series and their average finishing position was 3.25.
Sometimes no matter how hard the show tries to make its chosen act win, they have to admit defeat that the public isn’t prepared to play ball.
Especially in the case of the female acts, producers can have a Plan B up their sleeve, who they praise faintly at the start, but up the ante when they need to change position.
Here is a list of previous Plan B girls, with the original Plan A in brackets. Not all of them did amazingly well, with their average finishing position being 4.5.
Diana Vickers (Laura White), Lucie Jones (Stacey Solomon), Rebecca Ferguson (Cher Lloyd), Amelia Lily (Janet Devlin), Hannah Barrett (Tamera Foster) and Lauren Platt (Lola Saunders).
The X Factor may primarily be billed as a singing contest, but to keep viewers tuning in each week, it also needs to ensure that it remains entertaining. It would be pretty boring to listen to seven slow ballads.
Therefore, there is a need to ensure certain acts that are not as vocally talented as others but more amusing to stick around. It also benefits the show as having so-called bad acts still in with a chance of winning at the business end of the show creates more of a media buzz.
Chico, Jedward, Wagner, Rylan Clark and Stevi Ritchie are previous examples and their average finishing position was 5.6. Reggie and Bollie are arguably more talented this year than this group though.
There are certain acts that the judge’s seem to continually save in sing-offs, usually because they are more guaranteed than other more boring acts to create headlines or the chosen ones of the show to win.
Chico (for entertainment), Hope (for being potentially commercial), Ruth Lorenzo (for being attractive), Rachel Adedeji (?), Katie Waissel (for churning headlines), Misha B (for being potentially commercial and churning headlines), Rylan Clark (for being entertaining) and Stereo Kicks (for being potentially commercial) were all saved at least twice when on the show and had an average finishing position of 5.7.
Mason Noise slammed the show during the six-chair challenge and has already been brought back once, probably because he could make some headlines. Don’t be surprised to see him saved in another sing-off at some point, having already caused the shock elimination of Seann Miley Moore.
We covered the dismal record of pre-live-show female favourites in this previous article (http://news.ladbrokes.com/x-factor/x-factor-forlorn-female-faves-spell-bad-news-for-louisa-johnson.html), which highlighted the difficulty the show had in terms of their fancied females getting over with the public.
Watching Louisa Johnson go out in seventh spot seems highly unlikely, but the average finishing position of Laura White, Janet Devlin, Ella Henderson and Tamera Foster is sixth.
Some acts are given an obstacle they have to overcome and once it is deemed that they have succeeded, then the show can subliminally pass this on to voters to encourage them not to vote any more.
Jonny Robinson was shown being popular having grown up struggling to be accepted, Abi Alton was criticised for a few weeks and then suddenly praised which suggested she had gained her redemption, while Paul Akister put on a performance after a few weeks of merely standing around singing. This trio had an average finishing position of 8.6.
After last week’s focus on Monica Michael’s dress, moving out of her comfort zone of black outfits that show little skin to wearing a revealing dress that got a bit of disapproval, expect her to be praised soon for getting the balance right and wearing something in between, suggesting an end to her journey.
Looking back through the X Factor annals, there are numerous male acts whose name is instantly forgettable. It will almost certainly require a look through Google Images to remember what they look like.
Here is a list of some that fit under this umbrella: Philip Magee, Andy Williams, Scott Bruton, Rikki Loney, Paige Richardson, Craig Colton, Kye Sones and Jack Walton. The average finishing position of this group is ninth.
If the X Factor makes it through another three series, Max Stone can add his name to this group.
Deciding on a shock elimination is sure to bring the X Factor headlines and cause controversy from voters, who question what the judges were listening to when making their decision.
Few will accept that Seann was worse than Mason in the week-two sing-off, but Maria Lawson, Daniel DeBourg, Lucie Jones, Aiden Grimshaw and Carolynne Poole are others that will feel they were dealt a bad hand in this regard previously.
We have already touched on female favourites and Plan B options. With these two types of acts supported by producers, it makes sense to offer little incentive to any other younger female who could be competing for votes.
Kiera Weathers found herself in this position, joining the likes of Roberta Howett, Kimberley Southwick, Sophie Habibas, Jade Ellis and Stephanie Nala in being picked to make up the numbers.
In reality, to win the X Factor, or even do well, acts need to appeal to the mass British public, rather than a small niche.
Therefore, acts that have wacky hair, facial piercings, perform rap songs or dress especially unconventionally are unlikely to get very far.
Alien Uncovered fit into this box, alongside previous acts including Rachel Hylton, Kandy Rain, Storm Lee, Frankie Cocozza, MK1 and Blonde Electra.
In most series, it is either a group or an older contestant that goes out early on.
Bupsi added her name to this list of an ageing female that were given little airtime and so had no time to endear themselves to the public, matching her up with Verity Keys, Sami Brookes and Lorna Simpson.