Luke and Lorna ones to back early for first X Factor elimination

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Given that the younger female demographic are widely believed to be among the keenest voters on the X Factor, it is somewhat of a surprise to see that at least one of the younger male acts have struggled on the first live show in recent years.

In each of the last three X Factor seasons, one of the under-25 male acts have found themselves in the bottom two in the opening week, with Luke Friend looking the most likely candidate to follow suit this time.

Luke is 2/1 to be in the bottom two in the first week and 5/1 to be the first elimination.

It is worth remembering that a new voting system is being introduced this year also. What will happen now is that the votes will be counted after only 10 minutes, with the act with the fewest votes going into the sing-off, alongside the contestant found to have finished bottom when voting is closed.

The other act liable to finish in the bottom two is one from the overs category if recent series are anything to go by.

Of the 11 acts to make the live shows in this category in the last three years, only two – Christopher Maloney and Mary Byrne – have finished in the top half of the public vote.

Last year, the overs were responsible for two of the bottom three in the first week, while in the year previous, all three were positioned in the bottom five.

Lorna Simpson may be the most at risk this year, as she has not been aired too much before this stage, which will have prevented the public from knowing her back story and generally creating an opinion of her.

She is 6/5 to find herself in the bottom two and an appealing 3/1 to be the first act sent home.

Favourite in both markets is another of Sharon Osbourne’s overs in Shelley Smith, but she is one of few acts with any real personality this year and this could be enough alone to keep her in for a few weeks.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.