When the world number four goes on a run of three consecutive opening round exits, it’s fair to say that the form isn’t a fair representation of his ability.
Andy Murray has admitted he was in a bad place back in February and March when he suffered consecutive defeats at the hands of Marcos Baghdatis, today’s opponent Donald Young and Alex Bogomolov Jr.
Young will be hoping to meet the same Murray he met in Indian Wells but having watched Murray demolish Feliciano Lopez in the third round, it’s fair to say Young knows he will have to up his game to win today.
The bookies have Murray as the 1/14 favourite to win and considering there are 80 places separating the two players in the rankings, it’s easy to see why Murray is so short.
However Young’s second round five-set victory over Stanislas Wawrinka should worry Murray and there will be a few punters willing to take the 7/1 for a Young win today.
Wawrinka was the man who knocked Murray out at this stage of last year’s US Open and at the time, the Swiss hadn’t shown any form of note to suggest he would defeat Murray.
Young has shown the form that could potentially trouble Murray today and the British number one is in for a tougher time than the US Open odds suggest.
Young’s victory in Indian Wells came in straight sets but a repeat of that seems highly unlikely, although a repeat of the first set tie-break may well be and that is priced at 5/1.
Murray is very short at 4/9 to win in three sets but with a battle suspected, the 11/4 for Murray to win 3-1 appeals.
Rafael Nadal vs Gilles Muller
Plenty of focus will be on how Nadal deals with the cramp issue he suffered from in the press conference on Sunday, but at 1/20 the world number one should have no problems dispatching of Muller today.
A straight sets win would banish any worries over fitness and punters can expect Nadal’s US Open odds to shorten should he do so.