It is quarter-final time at the Australian Open and based on past history it looks like free money to back David Ferrer and Novak Djokovic in a double to reach the last four, which pays a tad better than 1/3.
Both men are 1/6 to win their respective matches, with Ferrer 12-0 in his head-to-head with fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, while Djokovic has lost just one of his 12 with Tomas Berdych.
However, we have found some slightly more lucrative prices for the opening two men’s quarter finals.
Ferrer v Almagro: Tie-break in match @ 8/11
Ferrer may have won all of his previous meetings with Almagro, but it is worth noting that the majority of these have been on clay and none have been on an outdoor hard court since 2006.
Almagro is much improved since, especially in terms of his serve and for all Ferrer’s ability to keep rallies going, the underdog could make a real game of this.
He is almost certain to send down the most aces, both with no market on this, expecting a long game looks the next best option.
Neither player had a taxing last-16 clash or have stamina concerns, meaning they can cope with the demands of a lengthy meeting.
8/11 is worth taking that there is a tie-break, with 8/15 a solid price that there will be over 33.5 games in the match.
Djokovic to lose the 1st set but win the match @ 5/1
The fact that Djokovic was involved in a five-hour epic with Stanislas Wawrinka will lead some punters to believe that he is in danger against Berdych.
However, these punters should remember the back-to-back victories Djokovic battled through against Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal 12 months ago to win the Australian Open as proof of his immense recovery power.
Berdych’s only previous triumph over the world number one came at Wimbledon in 2010 and the general problem is that his reliable aggressive forehand is often nullified by Djokovic’s movement and depth of return.
But he has reached this stage without dropping a set or looking in any real trouble and this lack of time on court must offer some type of advantage.
Berdych has also won the first set in three of his last six meetings with Djokovic and the Serb is sometimes a slow starter when trying to work out his opponent.
4/6 is not the worst price that Berdych wins at least one set in the quarter final, with 5/2 good value that he takes the opening set.
Yet punters looking for value should look no further than Djokovic at 5/1 to lose the first set but win the match, which happened against Wawrinka, against Murray and Juan Martin del Potro in London at the end of last season and Nadal at last year’s Australian Open.
All odds and markets accurate as of publication’s time and date