The general consensus is that the final of the ATP World Tour Finals between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will be an extremely tight affair and that three sets may prove the best bet on offer at 6/4.
Not disagreeing with this train of thought, history between the pair shows that if a match does go beyond the minimum sets, then it is Nadal that tends to come out on top and so backing the Spaniard to triumph 2-1 at 7/2, could prove the quickest way to the rich house.
These two have already met five times in 2013, with Nadal slightly ahead with his three victories.
However, both of Djokovic’s successes have come in finals and the fact he hasn’t beaten Nadal in a round other than a final of any tournament since the ATP World Tour Finals of 2009, suggests he knows how to gain the edge over his rival when it really matters.
Furthermore, Djokovic has only won two of the last eight showdowns between the pair and it is interesting that both of the Serb’s successes have come in straight sets, whereas all of Nadal’s last four have seen each player take at least one set.
Djokovic is favourite to beat Nadal in London at 4/7, but based on his previous record, it could be worth taking the 11/8 that he lifts the trophy 2-0 instead. Both of his previous victories in this event against Nikolay Davydenko in 2008 and Roger Federer last year arrived in straight sets.
Nadal is 11/8 just to win the match and there are some reasons why this on its own is a decent price.
Firstly, he is the world number one and a victory over Djokovic should help prove to any doubters that he is the world’s best. Also, the last two finals in London have been won by the higher-ranked player in the ATP seedings.
Secondly, having won all four Grand Slams and an Olympic gold medal, this is the only big tournament to elude Nadal and so beating Djokovic will complete his personal set.
Looking at the alternate markets and the 8/11 that Djokovic is the first to break serve has some appeal.
Djokovic didn’t give up a single break point in his last clash with Nadal and has conceded fewer break point opportunities than the Spaniard across the ATP World Tour Finals thus far.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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