Roger Federer wants revenge for his Shanghai Masters final defeat to Murray, but he may have to wait until next season to do so.
It’s a bold statement considering their form entering the tournament, but Murray can upset the world number two for the third time this year by playing the aggressive tennis that saw Soderling dominated – Murray is 11/10 to beat Federer.
Federer has been on a mission to destroy all in his path since his defeat to Murray in Shanghai and his two tournament wins since, plus a semi-final appearance last week, mean he is the 4/6 favourite to beat Murray.
But the Scot seems to have the better of Federer when they meet in best of three ties and with a capacity crowd cheering Murray on, Murray can harness the energy provided by his home support and beat Federer.
Both of Murray’s two victories over Federer this year have been in straight sets and the world number four is 12/5 to continue the trend and beat Federer 2-0.
But six of the 11 matches between the two that have been the best of three sets have gone the distance, Murray won five of those six, and Murray is 10/3 to beat Federer 2-1.
In those five matches that Murray won 2-1, he lost the first set four times and had to come from behind, suggesting Murray is a huge price at 6/1 to lose the first set and win the match.
A three set match would pretty much guarantee over 23.5 games in the match, and the 10/11 seems great value compared for the 4/5 for under 23.5 games, but at 6/5 for exactly three sets in the match, that seems the value of the market.
A £10 stake on Murray to lose the first set and win the match would return £70. See the full R Federer vs A Murray betting odds here.