A place in the semi finals of the ATP World Tour finals can be all but sealed on day three in London, with the winner of the clash between Rafael Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka moving onto four points in Group A.
The other clash in the group pits David Ferrer against Tomas Berdych and this is important for other reasons, as the loser is virtually confirmed to be out of the competition.
This is perhaps the most one-sided rivalry in tennis, as Nadal has won all 11 of his career meetings with Wawrinka and has yet to even drop a set during these successes.
The fact that the indoor courts in London are playing particularly slowly only makes the chances of Wawrinka improving this dreadful record tougher, as Nadal’s willing chasing of lost causes and added power from the baseline will be even more greatly rewarded.
There is even the possibility that Wawrinka will not even bother changing up from third gear here, with his final Group A game with David Ferrer the one that is likely to determine whether he advances to the semi finals of this event.
The three bets that are tough to oppose here are the 1/6 that Nadal beats Wawrinka, the 1/2 that the Spaniard triumphs 2-0 and the 5/6 that there are under 21.5 games in the match.
Interestingly, four of the last five showdowns between this pair have been on indoor hard courts, with Ferrer securing the majority of the successes.
The most recent was in the quarter finals at Paris in the final preparation event, where the statistics showed this duo were largely inseparable in many areas over the three sets.
Of the four indoor encounters, three have not only required a deciding set, but have been won by the player to drop the opening set.
Three sets here looks the best bet at 5/4, with punters advised to consider the 5/1 that Ferrer loses the first set but goes on to win the match.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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