Indoor form key for Federer to win seventh ATP World Tour Finals

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Roger Federer almost always holds the upper hand in finals at the ATP World Tour Finals and this dominance makes 11/8 look too big to turn down that he claims a seventh year-end title by beating Novak Djokovic.

No player can even equal Federer’s six previous titles and only David Nalbandian back in 2005 has ever managed to stop him in the final and that was in a deciding set.

It is fitting that it is world number one Djokovic that stands in his way this time, as the ATP World Tour Finals has often struggled to get the two highest-ranked players through to the final, with this being only the fourth time in 42 years that it has happened.

This represents the 30th career meeting between the two, with Federer leading 16-13 overall. However, things have been tight in 2012, with two wins apiece.

The big advantage for Federer was that he won the only clash on hard courts and historically he has had too many weapons for Djokovic when they have met indoors.

Federer is always looking to attack the lines of the singles court and it is much easier for him indoors.

When there is some wind playing outdoors, not only can it blow his odd attacking shot slightly out, but he mainly mistimes more shots as he connects less with the sweet-spot of his racquet.

This was none more evident than when Federer beat Djokovic at Wimbledon this year when the roof had to be closed on Centre Court.

A repeat of that performance will see Federer triumph again here, while even a repeat of his display in the semi-finals here when beating Andy Murray should suffice.

Djokovic is the favourite at 4/7 to become the ninth different world number one to win the title and unlike Federer has remained unbeaten so far in London this year.

He has also beaten Federer in five of their last six hard-court matches, but these were all outside.

Only once in the last 13 meetings has the player to win the first set lost a match between these two and so Federer fans looking to make a little more profit may want to take the 7/4 that he wins both the opening set and then the match.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.