ATP Tour Finals: Wawrinka to push Fed all the way in the semis

Andy Murray will feel somewhat relieved to have avoided further progress at the ATP Tour Finals, with Britain’s Davis Cup final against Belgium around the corner, but that shouldn’t have punters reading too much into Stan Wawrinka’s 2-0 victory over the Scot.

Wawrinka is the outsider at 2/1 to beat fellow Swiss Roger Federer at the O2, despite seeing off Murray in straight sets following another 2-0 victory over Spain’s David Ferrer, with the 17-time Grand Slam winner 4/11 to take his fourth straight match at the London venue.

Having made the final at each of the past four runnings of this event, each time at the O2, Federer rates a fair bet to beat the French Open champion for the 18th time in 21 career clashes between the pair, but the 34-year-old couldn’t manage a straight-sets win over Kei Nishikori last time out, losing the second 6-4.

Furthermore, five of their past eight meetings have seen the younger Swiss take at least one set off the great man, including at this stage of this tournament 12 months ago.

With that in mind, Federer to win 2-0 ranks a poor 5/6 favourite in Ladbrokes’ set betting market, while 11/4 about the same 2-1 scoreline as last year looks the part.

Roger Federer celebrates against Stanislas Wawrinka at the 2015 US Open

Roger Federer faces a tough opponent in fellow Swiss Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka to win the first set at 2/1 seems decent by the same rationale, as the 30-year-old managed as much at this stage last year and has done so twice in his past four jostles with Federer on Hard courts.

The bookies also offer odds on total sets, with two at 1/2 and one at 6/4, while Wawrinka to take at least one of those can be backed at 5/6.

As a tie-break has occurred in six of the past eight Federer v Wawrinka duels, 5/6 about another in this match also warrants a wager.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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