England v Samoa: Pacific Islanders value to beat the Handicap

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England face Samoa at Twickenham in the final test of the November International series.

Having already beaten Argentina, and Australia, Eddie Jones will be confident of making it three-from-three against Samoa.

After starting a little slowly against Argentina, the performance was raised a notch or three against the Aussies. A comprehensive 30-6 thrashing set the bar high for the coming Six Nations.

Jones will look to finish the autumn tests on a high and has announced a 35-man squad. George Kruis and Mike Brown are back in the fold having missed the Australia game.

The match odds suggest Samoa will arrive in and leave London with a whipping. England 1/66 to win. Samoa are huge 25/1 underdogs.

The Handicap Betting odds are set at +/-34. That would leave us to believe that the odds compilers also believe England will do a number on their southern hemisphere counterparts.

England have played the Samoans seven times before and have won on each occasion. The total points tally racks up to 244-100.

That would leave the average scoreline between the two tests at 35-14 – a 21-point margin of victory for England.

On those seven occasions, England would have beaten that -34 Handicap margin just once – in a 2005 Autumn International. The next biggest margin was by 28 points in the 2007 World Cup.

In recent tests, England have struggled a little to put the Samoans away. They’re big, tough, and durable – and carry a little bit of swagger at times, too.

With the bigger two tests now successfully behind them, Eddie Jones’ men might not be at peak intensity levels. And that could lend to a closer game than expected.

Samoa haven’t been in good form lately, winning one of their last nine tests. They did run Scotland close a couple of weeks ago, however – losing by just six points.

With all that considered, England will win – but by how much? We’re backing Samoa to keep it relatively tight and win on the +34 Handicap at 10/11.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Cian Carroll

Starting life as a football columnist for his local paper in Dundalk, Cian has written for a number of media outlets with pieces published in The Birmingham Mail and Spain’s El Mundo Deportivo. A lover of football, GAA, boxing, rugby and MMA, he’s a big Aston Villa and Dundalk fan. He can be regularly spotted on various mountain tops.