Munster head to the heartland of France as 5/1 outsiders for their Heineken Cup semi-final clash with Clermont Auvergne and it’s not hard to see why.
The Irish side are Mired in mid-table in the Pro 12, and have won just two matches in their last eight.
If that’s not enough to foresee a Munster struggle in this last-four clash, they face a Clermont side in blistering form, and are many people’s favourite for Heineken Cup and Top 14 success this year.
Clermont’s last three domestic games have seen them thump Agen 66-21, hold second-placed Toulon to a 23-23 draw on the south coast, and take a commanding 39-17 win against third-placed Toulouse.
It’s the kind of form that explains a pre-match price of 1/8, and the French side should cruise through to a first ever appearance at a Heineken Cup final.
With all that in mind, a Clermont winning margin of 11-15 points at 4/1 looks promising.
The second semi-final sees Saracens andToulonmeet, with neither side having reached a European Cup final before.
Toulon arrive in London off the back of a surprise domestic reverse to Grenoble, and although Saracens head to Twickenham aiming to bounce back from a league defeat themselves, the hosts are unbeaten on any of their home grounds this season.
Sarries also had no concerns dispatching French opposition in Racing Metro home and away in the Pool stages of the Heineken Cup this season.
A close match is expected, as reflected in the 10/11 match betting price on both sides.
With an unbeaten home record to preserve, Saracens could just edge this tie against the French side, and 9/2 for Saracens to secure a winning margin of 1-5 points may attract some attention.
Clermont to win by 11-15 and Saracens to pull off a 1-5 point margin victory comes in at handy 27.5/1.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing