What’s going on with the #indyref betting markets?

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This time last week, the odds on a NO vote were around 1/4 with most bookmakers. Now it’s generally about 1/5 and as short as 1/6 in places. You’d think there might have been some very bad news for the YES camp in recent polls. In fact, the complete opposite – the three polls this week have all been good for the Nationalists.

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The fact that someone in London apparently had £400,000 on NO at 1/4 this week may have stimulated a few other people to think that this was a good investment, or that the odds were about to collapse. Ladbrokes certainly saw plenty of money at 1/5 during the week, despite the polling news pointing in the opposite direction. All the same we’ve shortened YES from 10/3 to 3/1 this morning and are now best price 2/9 about NO.

If I were wanting to back YES, I still think the 50-55% YES vote percentage band at 5/1 is a good way of doing it.

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.