What chance a Tory/UKIP coalition government?

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In actual fact, you could have got 66/1 about a Tory/UKIP coalition just two months ago. Now it’s only 14/1. Is that a good bet?

Post election Government – Latest Odds

  • 15/8 Labour Majority
  • 4/1 Conservative Majority
  • 5/1 Lab/LD Coalition
  • 11/2 Cons/LD Coalition
  • 7/1 Labour Minority Government
  • 8/1 Conservative Minority Government
  • 14/1 Cons/UKIP Coalition
  • 50/1 Cons/Lab Coalition
  • 66/1 Lab/UKIP Coalition
  • 100/1 Lab/SNP Coalition
  • 100/1 UKIP Majority
  • 200/1 LD Majority

I think there are at least two obvious conditions which would have to be met for this to be a possibility

  1. Conservatives win most seats, but not a majority. In practice, they would probably give minority government a go at anything above 315 seats or so. So I think we’d have to be looking at something between 290 and 315 seats for any Tory led coalition to be a possibility. A fairly narrow range, but not that far off our current Tory seat line of 275.5. Probably around a 3/1 shot at least. If UKIP do spectacularly well, that bottom mark of 290 seats might be lower.
  2. UKIP win more seats than the Liberal Democrats. I think it’s extremely unlikely that Cameron would go into an arrangement with UKIP instead of the Lib Dems unless he had to. Which he won’t, unless the Liberal Democrats win fewer seats than UKIP. We don’t have a match bet on that, although I think I’d make it about a 5/1 shot.

So, even with just these two minimum conditions, it’s a 3/1 and 5/1 double, which equates to 23/1. Even if those two conditions were met, there are a lot of other possible arrangements which might make more sense.

I think there are probably better ways of backing UKIP to do well in the election than taking the 14/1 here.

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Just to avoid any doubt, here is how Ladbrokes will be deciding on the settlement of this market:

A coalition is defined as any arrangement which results in representatives of the all of the parties named having cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election (and no other parties having cabinet representation).
A minority government is defined as the party named having fewer than 326 seats, but having all cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election.
A majority government is defined as the party named having over 325 seats and all of the cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election
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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.


4 Comments

mshaddick

Put that in at 33/1 – bear in mind our rules, which would mean that all three and only these three parties have cabinet seats for us to classify it as a coalition.

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