With Iowa preparing to go to the caucuses on Monday, Republican nominee Donald Trump has stated he will not attend Thursday evening’s live debate on Fox News.
Trump’s decision has been largely pointed towards avoiding a showdown with host Megyn Kelly, after Kelly gave ‘The Donald’ a hard time in August’s live debate.
The former US Apprentice host is the shortest price yet at evens to be named Republican Presidential Nominee, but it remains to be seen what impact his absence will have ahead of the opening votes in Iowa.
It is generally understood that the 69-year-old should still perform well when the state’s voters place their votes next week, and a Trump vote share of 30-35 per cent is the most likely at 6/4 according to Ladbrokes.
Trump’s closest rival Ted Cruz – a 3/1 shot – has a lot to do according to the latest poll from CNN/ORC which states the Texas Senator has just 19 per cent of Republican support, far behind Trump’s new high of 41 per cent.
However, a poll from Quinniac University in Connecticut had the pair much closer, with Trump at 31 per cent and Cruz right behind on 29.
This suggests that a lot can still change between now and Monday – again highlighting the potential impact Trump’s debate absence may or may not cause.
While Trump courts the more moderate conservative and liberal Iowans, Cruz has the following of the Tea Party Conservatives, evangelical Christians and the very conservative and there is little or no overlap of supporters.
With much still to be said over the coming days, there could be value had on other outcomes in Iowa.
A Trump percentage of is 25 is an 8/1 price with Ladbrokes should Iowans fail to back up the projection polls.
At the other end of the scale, what would be a surprising and ominous percentage of over 40 can be backed at 40/1.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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