Tower Hamlets Mayoral Election – Is Rahman Toast?

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Ladbrokes have some betting on Thursday’s Tower Hamlets Mayoral Election.

rahman

Incumbent Lutfur Rahman has been the subject of a fair amount of controversy since his election in 2010. Being the subject of a prime time Panorama investigation is not likely to have been helpful to his chances, even if the allegations were a bit underwhelming.

Still, he absolutely hosed up last time out.

tower

So, is 7/4 a good bet for someone who won by miles previously? Political punters don’t think so. We opened up with Rahman at 5/4, but the majority of the money has been for Labour candidate John Biggs, backed in from 4/7 to 2/5.

Perhaps backers of Biggs are assuming he will pick up the vast majority of second preference votes, assuming it goes to a second round (I expect it almost certainly will). I wouldn’t want to be relying on that, because voters aren’t all that good at using their second preferences sensibly. Only just over half of all possible second preferences in the 2012 London Mayoral election went to either Boris or Ken, despite it being perfectly obvious that they were the only possible runners in the second round. If Biggs isn’t very, very close in the first round, the chances of him overtaking Rahman are slim. Peter Davies managed to overturn a first round deficit in Doncaster in 2009, but I’m not sure when else it has happened?

It’s best to be a little wary into reading too much into betting patterns in an event like this. It’s a pretty thin market and, as some Rahman supporters have politely pointed out to me on twitter, he was the outsider last time as well. Having said that, he was backed in from 6/4 to 5/4 in 2010, so it was by no means a huge shock.

 

 

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.


One Comment

Hendrix

John Prescott also lost the Humberside Police Commissioner election on second preferences despite leading in first preferences.

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