Tories take the lead in Ladbrokes Election Forecast

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For the first time, the Conservatives have taken the lead in the Ladbrokes’ Election Forecast.

LEF0503

This is the result that would occur if the current favourite were to win in each individual seat. You can find our odds on every constituency here. The half points occur when we have joint favourites in any seat.

The full breakdown, with the changes since Feb 9th when we last published:

  • 276.5 Con (+2.5)
  • 274.5 Lab (-3.5)
  • 42.5 SNP (+3.5)
  • 30 LD (-1)
  • 3.5 UKIP (-1.5)
  • 3 PC
  • 1 Green
  • 1 Speaker
  • 18 N.Ireland

Despite having the most seats (and almost certainly the most votes) , it’s not very easy to see how the Conservatives could form any sort of government in this scenario. This would be nearly the most unstable result imaginable, with Labour having come second in seats and votes, being propped up by the SNP and some combination of PC, Green and Ulster MPs.

Too Close To Call

Just for interest, here are the six seats where we currently have joint favourites:

  • Glenrothes SNP/LAB
  • Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath SNP/LAB
  • Dumfries & Galloway SNP/LAB
  • Devon North CON/LD
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk CON/LD
  • Rochester & Strood CON/UKIP
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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.