The 11 seats Labour are set to gain in the North West

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Ladbrokes now have general election constituency odds on all 75 seats in North West England.

Based on those odds, we think eleven seats will change hands in the region; all Labour gains.

Seat Winner 2010 Maj % Prediction
Lancaster & Fleetwood Conservative 0.8 LAB GAIN
Morecambe & Lunesdale Conservative 2.0 LAB GAIN
Carlisle Conservative 2.0 LAB GAIN
Weaver Vale Conservative 2.3 LAB GAIN
Warrington South Conservative 2.8 LAB GAIN
Bury North Conservative 5.0 LAB GAIN
Blackpool N & Cleveleys Conservative 5.3 LAB GAIN
City of Chester Conservative 5.5 LAB GAIN
Wirral West Conservative 6.2 LAB GAIN
Manchester Withington Lib-Dem 4.2 LAB GAIN
Burnley Lib-Dem 4.3 LAB GAIN

We’ve also got one seat in the “too close to call” column; Pendle which has the Tories and Labour as 10/11 joint favourites. I guess the most high-profile casualty if the odds are correct would be Esther McVey in Wirral West.

One of the most interesting seats still just about in the CON HOLD column is Rossendale & Darwen where Will Straw (son of Jack) is a narrow outsider to regain the seat for Labour.

The Liberal Democrats are forecast to hold on to their three seats in Cheshire along with Fortress Farron in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Manchester Withington looks like a formality for Labour, although we have seen some informed money for the Lib Dems to hold on in Burnley.

There are no particularly obvious targets for UKIP here; Ladbrokes rate their best chances as Ribble Valley and Blackpool South, both at 16/1

Here is the predicted new make up of the region after the election, along with the change from 2010:

  • Lab 58 (+11)
  • Cons 13 (-9)
  • LD 4 (-2)

 

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.


6 Comments

Adam Gray (@AdamGraysWay)

Disagree with most of these (the Con-Lab ones)! In 2013 County elections, Labour “won” Lancaster & Fleetwood by just 0.4% and Morecambe & Lunesdale by 1.1%.The Cleveleys bit of Blackpool North went convincingly Tory: the Blackpool bit is bigger and more Labour, but Cleveleys isn’t exactly a no-go area for the party and they fared poorly.

Is Labour doing better or worse than 2013? It’s doing worse, and I suspect it’ll do even worse next year. So on what credible basis do they fall? UKIP? Already a factor in 2013.

Furthermore, have you taken into consideration double incumbency, which for most seats in this list? If not, why not given the spectacular impact it had in 2010 among Tory seats gained in 2005: not just Tories up more than average, but Labour down substantially? Admittedly the dismal overall election result will have influenced that a bit, it would in other seats too.

Other oddity is that Pendle – which Labour won much more comfortably in 2013 than Morecambe or Lancaster isn’t on the list.

I’d discount all seats with majorities of more than 5% because Labour’s really not polling well and because of double incumbency in all these seats. I’d discount Morecambe and I’d discount Lancaster for Labour’s unimpressive performance when real votes are cast. That leaves Carlisle, Warrington South and Weaver Vale. Carlisle is most likely to revert but is contrary. Weaver Vale and Warrington South shouldn’t have been lost by Labour last time…and yet they were. They’re more likely to fall back to Labour than not, but there’s no massive likelihood there.

Best UKIP performance in 2013 was in Cleveleys (25% – but small area up for election). Suggests north should be better than south and that makes sense demographically too: a little whiter, a little more affluent

mshaddick

Sounds like there should be some value bets in backing the Tories in most of these seats then e.g. 3/1 in Lancaster & Fleetwood.

Rob

Southport isn’t in Cheshire – it’s in Lancashire/Merseyside

Joe

Or 2 – depending on whether you are a traditionalist or not

Comments are closed.