Ladbrokes now have general election constituency odds on all 75 seats in North West England.
Based on those odds, we think eleven seats will change hands in the region; all Labour gains.
|Seat||Winner 2010||Maj %||Prediction|
|Lancaster & Fleetwood||Conservative||0.8||LAB GAIN|
|Morecambe & Lunesdale||Conservative||2.0||LAB GAIN|
|Weaver Vale||Conservative||2.3||LAB GAIN|
|Warrington South||Conservative||2.8||LAB GAIN|
|Bury North||Conservative||5.0||LAB GAIN|
|Blackpool N & Cleveleys||Conservative||5.3||LAB GAIN|
|City of Chester||Conservative||5.5||LAB GAIN|
|Wirral West||Conservative||6.2||LAB GAIN|
|Manchester Withington||Lib-Dem||4.2||LAB GAIN|
We’ve also got one seat in the “too close to call” column; Pendle which has the Tories and Labour as 10/11 joint favourites. I guess the most high-profile casualty if the odds are correct would be Esther McVey in Wirral West.
One of the most interesting seats still just about in the CON HOLD column is Rossendale & Darwen where Will Straw (son of Jack) is a narrow outsider to regain the seat for Labour.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to hold on to their three seats in Cheshire along with Fortress Farron in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Manchester Withington looks like a formality for Labour, although we have seen some informed money for the Lib Dems to hold on in Burnley.
There are no particularly obvious targets for UKIP here; Ladbrokes rate their best chances as Ribble Valley and Blackpool South, both at 16/1
Here is the predicted new make up of the region after the election, along with the change from 2010:
- Lab 58 (+11)
- Cons 13 (-9)
- LD 4 (-2)